Forecasting the MAC Race

Pomeroy

MAC East

Kent 12-4

Akron 12-4

Ohio 11-5

Miami 9-7

BGSU 8-8

Buffalo 3-13

MAC West

WMU 11-5

EMU 7-9

CMU 7-9

Toledo 7-9

NIU 4-12

BSU 4-12

Sagarin

MAC East

Kent 13-3

Ohio 12-4

Akron 11-5

Miami 10-6

BGSU 6-10

Buffalo 3-13

MAC West

WMU 13-3

CMU 8-8

EMU 7-9

Toledo 6-10

BSU 4-12

NIU 2-14

If the MAC Tournament Started Today...

1) Kent 6-2 (2-1 vs. WMU, Akron, and Ohio)
2) WMU 6-2 (0-1 vs. Kent, Akron, and Ohio - MAC West leader)
3) Akron 6-2 (1-1 vs. Kent, WMU, and Ohio)
4) Ohio 6-2 (1-1 vs. Kent, WMU, and Akron)
5) BGSU 5-3
6) Toledo 4-4 (1-0 vs. Miami and CMU)
7) Miami 4-4 (0-0 vs. Toledo and CMU)
8) CMU 4-4 (0-1 vs. Miami and Toledo)
9) EMU 3-5
10) NIU 2-6 (1-0 vs. BSU)
11) Ball St. 2-6 (0-1 vs. NIU)
12) Buffalo 0-8

Forecasting the MAC Race Part II

After the first trip through conference play, here is how Sagarin and Pomeroy have the MAC shaking out:

Sagarin:

East

Kent 14-2
Ohio 12-4
Akron 12-4
Miami 10-6
BGSU 6-10
Buffalo 4-12

West

WMU 12-4
CMU 7-9
EMU 7-9
Toledo 5-11
BSU 5-11
NIU 2-14

Pomeroy:

East

Kent 13-3
Akron 12-4
Ohio 11-5
Miami 9-7
BGSU 7-9
Buffalo 4-12

West

WMU 11-5
EMU 8-8
CMU 6-10
Toledo 5-11
BSU 5-11
NIU 5-11

Forecasting the MAC Race

Both Ken Pomeroy's and Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings include game-by-game predictions of the outcome of future games. These predictions show how the computers currently believe the 2008 MAC race will shake out. (Note: In addition to including a prediction of each game's outcome, the Pomeroy rankings also attempt to forecast a team's ultimate record. In some cases this record is different than the expected game-by-game predictions. I used Pomeroy's game-by-game predictions in the analysis below).

Pomeroy Rankings:

East

Kent 14-2
Miami 13-3
Akron 13-3
Ohio 12-4
Buffalo 4-12
BGSU 3-13

West

WMU 11-5
CMU 9-7
Toledo 7-9
EMU 7-9
Ball St. 2-14
NIU 1-15

Sagarin Predictor:

East
Miami 13-3
Ohio 13-3
Kent 12-4
Akron 11-5
Buffalo 4-12
BGSU 3-13

West

CMU 12-4
WMU 10-6
Toledo 8-8
EMU 6-10
Ball St. 3-13
NIU 1-15

Slow week in the MAC

My apologies to my 5 readers for the lack of updates lately. It's been a busy period at work, and a slow period in the MAC. Only one MAC team was in action this week, while the rest of the conference took time off to focus on final exams.

However, the one MAC game played was quite eventful, with my Ohio Bobcats pulling off arguably the conference's best win of the season, going into the Comcast Center in College Park, MD and defeating the Maryland Terrapins 61-55. Leon Williams had a HUGE homecoming, going off for 15 and 15, while Jerome Tillman absolutely posterized Bambale Osby on two occassions on the way to his game-high 20 points.

The Bobcats do not have much time to celebrate, however, as they now must focus on playing their highest rated opponent in 8 years - the #3 Kansas Jayhawks - this afternoon on ESPN2 (5pm eastern, 4pm central). The game is set to take place in Kansas City, at the new Sprint Center. The vegas oddsmakers, apparently unimpressed by Ohio's win over Maryland, have made Kansas an early 21 point favorite.

Six other MAC teams are in action this afternoon as well, including some other opportunities for nice wins, albeit all of them on the road. CMU visits Michigan, WMU travels to IUPUI, Miami vists Wright State, Toledo takes on UMass in Amherst, NIU travels to Loyola Chicago, and finally Akron visits Austin Peay.

An early MAC forecast

Ken Pomeroy's fantastic website has long provided the Pomeroy ranking system, in addition to RPI information. Using these Pomeroy rankings, Pomeroy's site projects the outcome of each team's remaining games. While such projections are, of course, far from reliable, and subject to change repeatedly throughout the year, I do think it is interesting to see how the Pomeroy rankings see the MAC shaping up:

MAC East

Miami 14-2
Kent 13-3
Ohio 12-4
Akron 7-9
BGSU 5-11
Buffalo 5-11

MAC West

CMU 9-7
EMU 9-7
WMU 8-8
Ball St. 7-9
Toledo 5-11
NIU 3-13

Of these projections, I think that Akron, WMU, and maybe Toledo are the teams most likely to substantially exceed the current projections. Ball State and CMU look to be the teams most likely to underperfom Pomeroy's predictions. But, of course, this is all extremely premature, as conference play does not start for nearly another month.

Rough Night in the MAC

Wednesday night started out promising for the MAC, but ended up a disaster.

The lone bright spot was Kent State, which absolutely crushed Rick Majerus' solid St. Louis squad 81-40. Chris Singletary led the charge for the Flashes with 16 points on 5-6 shooting from the field.

Miami jumped all over Dayton early, and led by as many as 19 at one point, only to see the Flyers come storming back to take the lead with five seconds left on a Brian Roberts' three-pointer. Dayton won 63-62.

Western Michigan was beaten relatively handily by Valparaiso, 77-65. The Broncos were ice cold from the field, shooting just 36.5% from the field, including a frigid 27.8% from three. Joe Reitz led the Broncos with 16 points, despite fouling out.

Toledo fell behind early to N.C. Wilmington, trailing by 12 at the half. The Rockets came roaring back in the second half, but ultimately fell 65-61. Tyrone Kent continued his torrid start to 07-08, leading the Rockets with 18 points.

Eastern Michigan blew an 8-point halftime lead at home to Detroit, falling 72-68. Carlos Medlock paced the Eagles with 21 points.

Central Michigan continued its very disappointing start, by getting handled at home by Illinois-Chicago, 65-52. The loss drops Ernie Ziegler's squad to a surprising 0-5 to begin the season. With a two-game road trip to Detroit and Robert Morris ahead, followed by a home game against 3-1 CSU-Fullerton, and then a trip to Ann Arbor to play Michigan, the Chips had better step their game up in a hurry if they want to avoid a devastating 0-9 start to the year.

Monday Recap

My Ohio Bobcats suffered their first defeat of the year at Holy Cross, 62-60. The Bobcats were without the services of All-MAC performer Jerome Tillman, who was hospitalized Sunday night with heart palpitations. Tillman is expected to make a full recovery, beginning Thursday at Temple. The Bobcats, sans one of their best players, put up a good fight against the Patriot League favorites, tying the game at 60 on a Michael Allen 3-pointer with 10 seconds left, but allowed Holy Cross to score a layup in transition with 2 seconds left for the win. Ohio's performance was impressive under the circumstances, but frustrating nonetheless, as the Bobcats could have notched a strong out of conference win simply by connecting on a reasonable percentage of their free throws (OU made only 11 of 21 FTs).

In other action, the Akron Zips almost blew a double digit lead at home to the Temple Owls, before finally hanging on for a 67-65 win. Cedrick Middleton led the way for the Zips with 17 points.